Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has started the Premier League season in sensational form, scoring nine goals in his first seven games. While this is not his personal best—he netted 11 in the same period in 2022-23 and 10 last season—he already leads the early running for the Golden Boot by three goals. Remarkably, none of his nine goals came from penalties, adding weight to his dominance.
A strong favourite for the award
Injuries could still influence the Golden Boot race, but two factors make Haaland a clear favourite. First, he has already scored many goals and consistently created high-quality scoring chances. Second, his usual rivals have made slow starts. The expected goals statistic (xG) reflects the number of goals a player typically scores from the chances they receive, based on Premier League history. Haaland’s xG from open play shows he gets more and better chances than anyone else this season. Even if he finished no better than average, he would still outscore his competitors.
Unprecedented quality of chances
Haaland has taken 29 shots in the league this season, 12 more than any other player. While this is consistent with his previous seasons—he had 30 and 34 non-penalty shots in the same period of the last two campaigns—the quality of his chances is remarkable. His shots carry an average xG of 0.27, meaning historically 27 percent of similar attempts result in goals. Only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has faced easier opportunities to score, thanks to a few simple tap-ins. Last season, Haaland’s xG per shot was 0.17, showing he now receives notably better scoring chances in a reorganised City side.
Comparing starts with rivals
Haaland’s fast starts are familiar. After seven games last season, he had scored 10 goals, four more than anyone else and six more than Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah. Yet Salah went on to claim the Golden Boot with 29 goals, seven more than Haaland. This season, Haaland has opened in blistering form while Salah has scored half the number of goals and generated half the xG compared with last season’s start. The Egypt forward has experienced his quietest Premier League start in years.
Rivals have struggled
Haaland’s advantage grows when looking at the top 11 scorers from last season. Combined, they have scored no more goals than Haaland alone. Many contenders face obstacles: injuries to Yoane Wissa, Cole Palmer, and Jorgen Strand Larsen, transfer distractions for Alexander Isak, or underperforming teams for Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins, and Matheus Cunha. This leaves Haaland as the most likely contender for the Golden Boot so far.
The European Golden Shoe race
Haaland also competes for the European Golden Shoe, awarded to the top scorer across Europe’s top five leagues. The race is tighter, with Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe scoring 11 and nine goals respectively. Haaland’s high xG and absence of penalties still make him a favourite, but Kane and Mbappe are known for consistently exceeding their expected goals. The competition remains intense despite Haaland’s Premier League dominance.
